Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com! We are entering the last week of May, and this week is going to be a fun week for crypto.
This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. In this article, I’ll briefly explain the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process independently.
Upcoming Events for This Week
These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world.
Only the most important ones are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the events.
27/5/2024
US and British banks are closed for the holiday, which means low liquidity for USD and GBP pairs. Besides this, there are no events to worry about.
28/5/2024
The US Consumer Confidence report is coming out today. It’s an important economic indicator, so be cautious. Also, Australia is releasing its CPI data.
29/5/2024
German Prelim CPI data is scheduled for Wednesday. EUR pairs might be more volatile during the trading day.
30/5/2024
The Prelim GDP report and Unemployment Claims report are coming out for USD. These are market-moving events, so be careful when trading USD pairs.
31/5/2024
The Canadian GDP report and the PCE report for USD are coming out on Friday. These events can cause some volatility, so proceed with caution.
Forex Pairs
EURUSD:
For EURUSD, the price went up to a resistance level and then dropped back to its support level, shown by the red line. It has since moved back up. If the price breaks the closest resistance level, shown by the green line, then EURUSD will keep rising. But if the price breaks below the red line and goes down, the trend is still uncertain. Right now, the trend for EURUSD is bullish, but it’s in a strong area for a breakout in either direction. So, wait for the breakout to decide which direction to follow.
USDJPY:
As we discussed in the previous article, the trend for USDJPY is strong and bullish. It’s heading toward the 160 level, but expect some corrections along the way. Keep an eye on the green slope trend line; it is the support line for the price. If this line breaks, it could signal a trend reversal, but it’s more likely the price will continue to rise. Just in case, watch the line closely.
GBPUSD:
The price has broken the 1.27000 resistance level, so it should now be heading for the 1.28000 resistance level or even higher. Overall, GBPUSD is in an uptrend. You could see a reversal around the 1.28000 level, but it’s definitely heading for that level for now.
USDCHF:
Regarding USDCHF, I’m not sure if the price has re-entered the channel or not, but I can say that 0.90000 is a strong support level for the price, and it cannot fall below that. With that in mind, the price could either get back into the channel or reverse back to 0.90000. If the price opens inside the channel tomorrow, then we can assume the uptrend is still intact. So, let’s wait and see what happens.
USDCAD:
Regarding USDCAD, it looks like the price has returned to the trend, so USDCAD is on an uptrend and should keep rising. Key resistance areas for the price are 1.37800 and 1.38300. Keep those in mind when seeking USDCAD trading opportunities.
AUDUSD:
I thought AUDUSD would keep going up after breaking its resistance level, but it seems to have corrected right after the breakout. I’m still feeling bullish, but the price is currently going through a correction phase. It could retrace at any moment, so wait for any reversal signals before considering a long position.
NZDUSD:
Regarding NZDUSD, it seems like 0.60850 is a strong support level for the price, and it’s unable to break below that level. I’m expecting the price to rise up to at least the 0.62150 level. We could anticipate a reversal around 0.62150. If that level is also broken, then we can expect the price to rise even higher.
Commodities
GOLD:
Alright, I anticipated gold to keep going in the same direction, but it changed course after reaching its all-time high. This indicates it’s in a correction phase now, or even reversing. What I do know for sure is that the next support level for the price is around 2275. If the price manages to break this level, then we can expect gold to drop even further. On the other hand, it could bounce back from the 2275 level or even before that. So, keep an eye out for any reversal or breakout signals from candlesticks.
SILVER:
Regarding Silver, after the price broke the 29.85 level, it retraced back to that same level. So, what we can expect is either the price starts going up from the 29.85 level or it breaks that level down again. If that happens, it could drop further. So, keep an eye on the 29.85 level for Silver.
CRUDE OIL:
The price is currently trading at exactly the 81 range. If it can break this level below, then we can expect the price to drop further to the 78 and 72 levels. On the other hand, it could bounce back from the 81 level. However, since the overall trend for oil is bearish, a breakout below is more likely. So, wait for the breakout or reversal before entering a position.
Cryptocurrency
BTC:
Regarding BTC, like everyone else, I’m expecting it to go up. Last week, it showed signs of regaining momentum by retracing from the 60k level and breaking the 67,000 level. It even touched 70,000 and then dropped back to 67,000 before retracing. Now, we can expect the price to continue rising. Keep in mind that 67,000 seems to be good support, and 70,000 is a resistance. BTC has been more like on a sideways trend for a long time, so a strong breakout could push the price really high. Therefore, wait for confirmation for any big positions or take advantage of this mean-reverting sideways momentum.
ETH:
ETH is definitely on a bull run. Right now, the price appears to be consolidating, but overall, the trend is bullish for ETH. The strongest resistance for the price seems to be at 4k. So, what I’m expecting is that the price should reach the 4000 range, and there might be a correction there, or it could break that level and continue to rise from there.
BNB:
BNB is experiencing a lovely sideways trend. You could have made a lot of profit with any mean-reverting strategies. Right now, the price is trading around its resistance level. Since it’s sideways, the price could drop from that level back to its mean, or it could break that level to continue rising. So, keep an eye on the 635 level for any potential breakouts. Until then, take advantage of the sideways momentum.
Conclusion & Disclaimer
Please share your thoughts on this article; I’m thinking about adding a trading setups section for main pairs in this article; let me know what you think in the comment.
It’s crucial to acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, it’s important for readers to conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.
Encouragement of Independent Analysis
We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to a multitude of factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.
No Certainty in Market Predictions
It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to predict market movements with absolute certainty consistently. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.
Aligning with High Probability
Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.
Proceed with Caution
Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.
Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.
Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market analysis. Thank you.
My EAs do not open. Why ?!
Would anyone know?
You can go ahead to add the trading set-ups for the major pairs. The idea is welcome sir.
Sir in addition to my two previous emails concerning non performance of all the EAs I have downloaded from this website since January 1st 2024. Nobody has seemed to give me answers.
Please kindly respond.