The Week Ahead in Forex: August 9 to August 14, 2026

The week of August 9 to August 14, 2026, is set to bring significant economic data and central bank activity, with a particular focus on inflation figures and monetary policy decisions. Global equity indices like the USTEC, JP225, US500, US30, and DE40 have posted strong gains, alongside a notable +7.36% rise in XAUUSD. This comes as the US dollar has shown weakness over the past 24 hours, declining by -0.43%, while the risk meter currently stands at -0.03, indicating a slightly risk-off tone.

Recent economic releases showed mixed signals. China’s CPI y/y came in at 0.5% against a consensus of 0.8%, with CPI m/m at -0.1%, suggesting consumer deflation. However, China’s PPI y/y surprised to the upside at 3.5% versus a 2.9% consensus. In the US, the Unemployment Rate was reported at 4.1%, but Non-Farm Payrolls saw a decrease of -23K, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m rose by a modest 0.1%.

Tuesday will be a key day for the Australian dollar, with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement, and RBA Interest Rate Decision all scheduled for 04:30 UTC. The consensus for the interest rate is 4.35%, unchanged from the previous rate. The RBA Press Conference will follow at 05:30 UTC. Later, at 23:50 UTC, the BoJ L Money Stock y/y for Japan will be released, with a consensus of 5.1%. Retail positioning data shows the crowd shifting 8 points toward short on AUDUSD in the last 24 hours, and retail books disagree by 28 points on AUDUSD.

Wednesday brings a heavy slate of US inflation data at 12:30 UTC, including US Core CPI m/m, with a consensus of 0.2%, and US CPI m/m, expected at 0.1%. The annual figures, CPI y/y and Core CPI y/y, are anticipated at 3.4% and 2.5% respectively. These releases follow recent US labor market data showing job losses. Traders will also monitor the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 14:30 UTC, with a consensus of 6.059M, and the 10-Year Note Auction at 17:00 UTC. The retail crowd has flipped on XAUUSD, moving from 52% short to 53% long in 24 hours, while also shifting 9 points toward short on EURUSD.

Thursday concludes the week’s high-impact events with the UK GDP m/m at 06:00 UTC, where the consensus is for a contraction of -0.1%. The retail books show disagreement on GBPUSD by 21 points. CFTC data indicates significant net short positions in EUR at -58.1K and Nasdaq 100 at -14.6K.

This week’s data will matter most for how it shapes expectations for future monetary policy and economic stability.

Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)

Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.