GDP y/y - ForexCracked
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China

GDP y/y CNY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 19 02:00 UTC · consensus 4.6% · previous 4.3%  

What this release is

China’s Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the country’s borders. This release reports the year over year growth rate, indicating the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year. It is published quarterly by China’s national statistics office, stats.gov.cn.

Forex traders closely monitor China’s GDP growth as a primary indicator of the nation’s economic health and expansion. Robust economic growth can attract foreign investment, potentially increasing demand for the Chinese Yuan. Conversely, slower growth may signal economic challenges, potentially leading to reduced demand for the currency. This data also informs the central bank’s monetary policy decisions, which can directly influence the Yuan’s valuation.

Given its typical high impact rating, the headline GDP growth figure often drives immediate market reaction after its release. After past releases, market participants have focused on this primary number to gauge China’s economic momentum. The quarterly cadence ensures regular updates on the country’s economic performance.

How hard it hits, measured

1 releases · own feed
Typical USDCNH move
17pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCNH3.7p14p17p17p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCNH 1h
Jul 15, 20264.3%4.2%5%———
Apr 16, 20265%4.4%4.5%———
Jan 19, 20264.5%—4.8%———
Oct 20, 20254.8%—5.2%———
Jul 15, 20255.2%—5.4%———
Apr 16, 20255.4%—5.4%———
Jan 17, 20255.4%—4.6%———
Oct 18, 20244.6%4.3%4.7%———
Jul 15, 20244.7%4.5%5.3%———
Apr 16, 20245.3%4.4%5.2%———
Jan 17, 20245.2%4.5%4.9%———
Oct 18, 20234.9%4.6%6.3%———
Jul 17, 20236.3%4.7%4.5%———
Apr 18, 20234.5%4.8%2.9%———
Jan 17, 20232.9%4.9%3.9%———
Oct 24, 20223.9%5.1%0.4%———
Jul 15, 20220.4%5.3%4.8%———
Apr 18, 20224.8%5.3%4%———
Jan 17, 20224%5.4%4.9%———
Oct 18, 20214.9%5.4%7.9%———
Jul 15, 20217.9%11%18.3%———
Apr 16, 202118.3%2.6%6.5%———
Jan 18, 20216.5%0.4%4.9%———
Oct 19, 20204.9%3.3%3.2%———

Showing the latest 24 of 41 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCNH move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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