Manufacturing PMI - ForexCracked
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China

Manufacturing PMI CNY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 01:00 UTC · consensus 50.2 · previous 49.8  

What this release is

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for China, or PMI, is a monthly economic indicator published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, found at stats.gov.cn. It surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector about various business conditions, including new orders, production, employment, and inventories. This report offers a timely snapshot of the health and direction of China’s extensive manufacturing industry.

Forex traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI due to its high typical impact on the Chinese Yuan. Stronger manufacturing activity, as indicated by the PMI, often signals robust economic growth, which can influence expectations for monetary policy from the People’s Bank of China. Conversely, weaker readings may suggest economic deceleration, potentially leading to different policy considerations and affecting the Yuan’s valuation.

Market participants typically focus on the headline PMI figure upon its release. While the initial reading is key, any revisions to previous months’ data can also draw attention. After past releases, significant deviations from market expectations have often resulted in notable price action for the Chinese Yuan, reflecting the market’s assessment of China’s economic trajectory.

How hard it hits, measured

3 releases · own feed
Typical USDCNH move
30pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
34pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCNH11p19p30p34p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCNH 1h
Aug 31, 202649.849.549.2
Jul 31, 202649.250.150.3
Jun 30, 202650.349.450
May 31, 20265049.650.3
Apr 30, 202650.349.550.4
Mar 31, 202650.449.349
Mar 4, 20264949.349.3
Jan 31, 202649.349.450.1
Dec 31, 202550.149.349.2
Nov 30, 202549.249.449
Oct 31, 20254949.649.8
Sep 30, 202549.849.649.4
Aug 31, 202549.449.549.3
Jul 31, 202549.349.849.7
Jun 30, 202549.75049.5
May 31, 202549.55049
Apr 30, 20254950.650.5
Mar 31, 202550.549.850.2
Mar 1, 202550.249.349.1
Jan 27, 202549.149.750.1
Dec 31, 202450.149.750.3
Nov 30, 202450.349.750.1
Oct 31, 202450.149.949.8
Sep 30, 202449.849.349.1

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCNH move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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