Manufacturing PMI (CNY) comes in at 50.1 against 50.2 consensus

The China Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 printed at 50.1. This was slightly below the consensus expectation of 50.2. The actual figure represents a -0.2% surprise compared to consensus. The previous month’s reading was 49.8.

The USDCNH pair moved -0.8 pips five minutes after the release. It then moved +7.3 pips fifteen minutes after the release. One hour after the release, USDCNH was down -22 pips. This 1-hour move of -22 pips is smaller than the median 1-hour move of 30 pips observed after past releases. It is also smaller than the 34+ pips seen in top-quarter releases, based on three measured releases since 2015. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.