Manufacturing PMI (CNY) comes in at 49.2 against 50.1 consensus

China’s Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.2. This figure came in below the consensus expectation of 50.1. The previous month’s reading for the series was 50.3. The actual print represented a -1.8% surprise when compared to the consensus forecast.

In the market, USDCNH moved -11 pips in the 5 minutes immediately following the release. The pair then moved -19 pips after 15 minutes. One hour after the data was published, USDCNH was trading -16 pips from its pre-release level. Historically, the median 1-hour move for USDCNH after past Manufacturing PMI releases has been 30 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 30+ pips. The observed 1-hour move of -16 pips is smaller than the median historical move for this series. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available.