China

Non-Manufacturing PMI CNY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Nov 30 01:00 UTC · consensus 49.7 · previous 49.7  

What this release is

The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for China measures the health and sentiment of the country’s services and construction sectors. This monthly report is published by China’s national statistics office, found at stats.gov.cn. It provides insights into business conditions, activity levels, and expectations within the non-manufacturing segment of the economy.

Forex traders monitor this release for its implications on the Chinese yuan. A robust non-manufacturing sector often signals broader economic expansion, which can influence the central bank’s monetary policy decisions. Stronger economic performance and potential shifts in policy may affect the perceived value and demand for the CNY in global markets.

Market participants typically focus on the headline index number upon release. While the initial figure often drives immediate reactions, subsequent revisions can also draw attention. This report, released monthly, often leads to a medium impact on market sentiment and the Chinese yuan.

How hard it hits, measured

4 releases · own feed
Typical USDCNH move
26pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
32pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCNH8.7p16p26p32p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCNH 1h
Oct 31, 202649.749.450.2———
Sep 30, 202650.249.449———
Aug 31, 20264949.749——Story
Jul 31, 20264949.950.2———
Jun 30, 202650.249.750.1———
May 31, 202650.149.649.4———
Apr 30, 202649.449.750.1———
Mar 31, 202650.149.749.5———
Mar 4, 202649.549.849.4———
Jan 31, 202649.450.150.2———
Dec 31, 202550.249.949.5———
Nov 30, 202549.550.250.1———
Oct 31, 202550.150.350———
Sep 30, 20255050.650.3———
Aug 31, 202550.350.550.1———
Jul 31, 202550.150.350.5———
Jun 30, 202550.550.150.3———
May 31, 202550.35050.4———
Apr 30, 202550.450.150.8———
Mar 31, 202550.849.550.4———
Mar 1, 202550.450.650.2———
Jan 27, 202550.251.952.2———
Dec 31, 202452.250.650———
Nov 30, 20245050.150.2———

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCNH move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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