Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY) comes in at 49 against 49.7 consensus

China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI was released at 49, falling below the consensus estimate of 49.7. This print represents a -1.4% surprise compared to expectations. The figure matches the previous month’s reading of 49.

Following the release, USDCNH initially rose, gaining +6.3 pips within 5 minutes and +13 pips after 15 minutes. However, by one hour after the print, USDCNH had moved -37 pips. For context, the median 1-hour move for USDCNH after past Non-Manufacturing PMI releases has been 23 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 27+ pips. The observed 1-hour move of -37 pips is larger than the typical median and top-quarter moves. Historical data for this event is limited, with only two releases measured since 2015. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available.