China Non-Manufacturing PMI comes in at 50.2 against 49.4 consensus

The Non-Manufacturing PMI from China was released at 50.2. This figure came in above the consensus expectation of 49.4, representing a 1.6% positive surprise against forecasts. The previous month’s reading was 49.

Following the release, USDCNH showed an initial reaction, moving -0.8 pips after five minutes. Fifteen minutes post-release, the pair was trading +7.3 pips higher. One hour after the data publication, USDCNH was -22 pips lower from its pre-release level. Historically, the median one-hour move for USDCNH after similar Non-Manufacturing PMI releases has been 30 pips. Top-quarter releases have typically seen moves of 34 pips or more. The observed one-hour move of -22 pips is smaller than the historical median for this event. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available, as fewer than eight live-captured releases with consensus have occurred.