ADP Employment Change preview: Consensus **14K** after **44K** previous
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report for August is scheduled for release on September 2 at 12:15 UTC. This high-impact USD economic indicator provides an estimate of private sector payrolls. Market consensus projects a gain of 14K jobs for the month. This forecast represents a significant deceleration from the previous reading of 44K jobs, which was reported for July. The divergence between the current consensus and the prior month’s actual figure highlights the potential for market sensitivity around this release, as traders assess the health of the US labor market.
Historically, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report has been associated with significant price movements across major currency pairs and gold. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 20+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with top-quarter events moving 24+ pips. USDJPY has experienced a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 28+ pips. For XAUUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 36 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 66+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have seen median 1-hour moves of 8 pips, while USDCAD moved 10 pips and USDCHF 9 pips.
Recent releases of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change have shown varied outcomes. The July 2026 report, released on August 5, showed an actual increase of 44K jobs against a forecast of -12K, resulting in a -5.3 pip 1-hour move for EURUSD. The June 2026 report, released on July 1, posted 98K jobs, with EURUSD moving -21 pips in the hour following. In May 2026, the actual figure was 122K, leading to a -12 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. The April 2026 release saw 109K jobs versus a 26K forecast, with EURUSD moving -0.6 pips. The March 2026 report showed 62K jobs against a 11K forecast, leading to a -19 pip EURUSD 1-hour move.