ADP Nonfarm Employment Change comes in at 44K against -12K consensus

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for August 5, 2026, reported an increase of 44K jobs. This figure significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of a -12K decrease. The previous month’s reading was 98K. The actual print represented a 466.7% surprise compared to the consensus.

Following the release, market reactions varied across USD pairs. Fifteen minutes after the data, AUDUSD was up 1.8 pips, EURUSD was up 1.9 pips, and GBPUSD was up 6.7 pips. NZDUSD gained 4.8 pips. USDCAD moved down 3.8 pips, USDCHF was down 0.5 pips, and USDJPY was down 6.5 pips. XAUUSD saw a gain of 74 pips. For most major pairs, these initial moves are currently smaller than their respective median 1-hour movements observed after past ADP releases. For example, EURUSD’s 1.9 pip move is below its median 1-hour move of 11 pips. XAUUSD’s 74 pip gain, however, is above its median 1-hour move of 35 pips and falls within the top-quarter of historical moves for this asset.