ADP Nonfarm Employment Change comes in at 90K against 41K consensus

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for September came in at 90K, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 41K. This figure also marked an increase from the previous month’s 38K. The actual print represented a 119.5% surprise compared to the consensus.

In the 15 minutes following the release, market reactions were generally subdued compared to typical historical moves. EURUSD moved up 4.6 pips, while its median 1-hour move after past releases is 11 pips. USDJPY moved down 6.9 pips, against a median 1-hour move of 11 pips. XAUUSD saw a 12 pip decline, which is less than its median 1-hour move of 36 pips. Other pairs also showed limited movement. AUDUSD was down 2.4 pips, NZDUSD down 0.1 pips, GBPUSD up 0.1 pips, USDCAD down 2.6 pips, and USDCHF down 2.8 pips. These observed movements were generally smaller than the median 1-hour moves recorded after past releases for these pairs.