Australia CPI q/q preview: Market expects inflation moderation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| AUDUSD | — | — |
Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter is scheduled for release on 2026-07-29 at 01:30 UTC. This high impact event is closely watched for insights into inflationary pressures and potential implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. The market consensus anticipates a 1.1% increase quarter over quarter, a moderation from the previous reading of 1.4%.
Historically, this release has generated significant price action across AUD pairs. Based on 1-hour moves measured since 2015, AUDCAD has seen a median move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 32+ pips. AUDCHF typically registers a median 16 pips move, while AUDJPY’s median is 20 pips. AUDNZD has a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, and AUDUSD shows a median 17 pips move, with a direction reliability of 61%. Crosses involving AUD also react, with EURAUD experiencing a median 38 pips move and GBPAUD a median 45 pips move. Top-quarter reactions for these pairs can exceed 24 pips for AUDCHF, 30 pips for AUDJPY, 36 pips for AUDNZD, 27 pips for AUDUSD, 57 pips for EURAUD, and 67 pips for GBPAUD.
Recent CPI prints have shown varied outcomes. The April 2026 release came in at 1.4% against a 1.1% forecast, with AUDUSD moving -7.3 pips. In January 2026, the actual was 0.6% compared to a 1.3% forecast, resulting in a -0.6 pips AUDUSD move. The October 2025 print saw 1.3% against a 0.9% forecast, leading to a +13 pips AUDUSD move.