Caixin Services PMI comes in at 51.4 against 49.7 consensus

The Caixin Services PMI for China was reported at 51.4, exceeding the consensus estimate of 49.7. This print represents a 3.4% surprise against expectations. The previous month’s reading was 50.4.

Following the release, USDCNH moved -5.1 pips within five minutes and -0.6 pips within fifteen minutes. For context, the median one hour move for USDCNH after similar releases has been 11 pips, with top quarter releases seeing moves of 16 pips or more. These historical observations are based on three releases since 2015. The measured moves so far are small relative to typical historical movements. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.