Core CPI y/y comes in at 2.5% against 2.6% consensus

The latest U.S. Core Consumer Price Index year over year, released today at 12:31 UTC, came in at 2.5%. This figure was below the market consensus expectation of 2.6% and also lower than the previous reading of 2.6%. The actual print represented a -3.8% surprise compared to the consensus.

Following the release, the U.S. Dollar showed a general weakening trend against major currencies. AUDUSD rose 13 pips 15 minutes after the release, EURUSD gained 12 pips, and GBPUSD was up 13 pips. NZDUSD increased by 10 pips, while USDJPY fell 17 pips. USDCAD declined 6.4 pips, and USDCHF dropped 7.7 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, saw a significant rise of 109 pips within 15 minutes. Compared to historical data, these initial moves are generally smaller than the median 1-hour moves observed after past releases. For instance, EURUSD’s 12-pip gain is below its median 1-hour move of 21 pips, and USDJPY’s 17-pip drop is below its median of 22 pips. XAUUSD’s 109-pip rise, however, is above its median 1-hour move of 52 pips and falls into the top-quarter of historical moves, which are 108+ pips.