Core CPI y/y (USD) preview: Inflation data in focus

The US Core Consumer Price Index year over year, a key inflation gauge, is set for release on August 12, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 2.5%, a slight decrease from the previous 2.6%. This high-impact release is closely watched by market participants for its implications on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, as core inflation excludes volatile food and energy components.

Historically, this release has prompted significant market movement across major currency pairs and gold. Over 120 releases since 2015, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 22 pips move, with top-quarter events exceeding 43 pips over the same period. USDJPY’s median 1-hour move has been 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips across 116 events. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips over 117 events. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF have typically seen median 1-hour moves in the 15-16 pip range.

Recent Core CPI y/y prints show varying outcomes against forecasts. The July 2026 release came in at 2.6% against a 2.9% forecast, leading to a +37 pips 1-hour move in EURUSD. The June 2026 reading was 2.9%, matching the forecast, with EURUSD moving +11 pips. In May 2026, the actual was 2.8% versus a 2.7% forecast, resulting in a -0.9 pips EURUSD move. The current consensus of 2.5% follows the previous 2.6% actual.