Core CPI y/y (USD) preview: Market expects 2.5% annual inflation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
On October 14, 2026, at 12:30 UTC, the US Core CPI y/y data will be released. Market consensus forecasts an annual increase of 2.5%, a slight rise from the previous reading of 2.4%. This metric, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is closely watched for its implications on inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments, carrying a high impact rating for the USD.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past Core CPI y/y releases has been 21 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 39 pips across 122 releases since 2015. GBPUSD has seen a median move of 21 pips and top-quarter moves over 42 pips over 122 releases. USDJPY typically experiences a median 22 pips move, with top-quarter moves above 41 pips from 118 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter moves over 108 pips over 119 releases. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF have seen median 1-hour moves of 15 pips. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The September 2026 print came in at 2.4% against a 2.3% forecast, leading to a +9.5 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. In August 2026, the actual was 2.5% versus a 2.6% forecast, with EURUSD moving +7.2 pips. The July 2026 release saw a 2.6% actual against a 2.9% forecast, resulting in a +37 pip EURUSD 1-hour move.