Core CPI y/y (USD) preview: Market expects slight deceleration

Traders are looking ahead to the upcoming Core CPI y/y release for the United States, scheduled for 2026-09-11 at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact economic indicator is closely watched for insights into underlying inflation trends, which can influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. The market consensus forecast is for core inflation to register 2.4% year over year. This would represent a slight deceleration from the previous reading of 2.5%.

Historically, this release has been associated with significant market movements. Our data, spanning over 117 to 121 releases since 2015, shows that after past Core CPI y/y releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 42 pips. USDJPY has also shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, typically sees larger movements, with a median 1-hour move of 52 pips and top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips. Other major pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF have also shown median 1-hour moves ranging from 15 to 16 pips.

Recent Core CPI y/y prints have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The most recent release on August 12, 2026, came in at 2.5% against a forecast of 2.6%, followed by a +7.2 pip 1-hour move in EURUSD. In July 2026, the actual was 2.6% compared to a 2.9% forecast, with EURUSD moving +37 pips. June 2026 saw the actual match the forecast at 2.9%, resulting in an +11 pip move for EURUSD. Direction-reliability statistics for this release are not yet available.