Core Retail Sales m/m comes in at 1.4% against 0.5% consensus

Core Retail Sales m/m for the United States was released at 1.4% for September, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.5%. This print represents a 180.0% surprise against expectations. The previous month’s figure was revised to -0.3%.

Following the release, market reactions were observed across major currency pairs and gold. Fifteen minutes after the data, EURUSD moved up 5.5 pips, GBPUSD gained 7.7 pips, and XAUUSD rose 44 pips. In contrast, AUDUSD was down 0.6 pips, NZDUSD fell 1.5 pips, USDCHF declined 1.9 pips, and USDJPY was down 0.1 pips. USDCAD saw a 0.9 pip increase. Comparing these initial moves to historical patterns, the 44 pip rise in XAUUSD is approaching its median 1-hour move of 35 pips. For other pairs, the observed moves of -0.6 pips for AUDUSD, 5.5 pips for EURUSD, 7.7 pips for GBPUSD, -1.5 pips for NZDUSD, 0.9 pips for USDCAD, -1.9 pips for USDCHF, and -0.1 pips for USDJPY are currently small relative to their respective median 1-hour moves, which range from 9 pips to 15 pips after past releases.