Core Retail Sales preview: Consensus points to a slowdown

Investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s Core Retail Sales m/m release for the United States, scheduled for 12:30 UTC on October 15, 2026. The market consensus anticipates a 0.6% increase for the upcoming print. This forecast suggests a notable slowdown compared to the previous reading of 1.4%. As a high-impact economic indicator, this release provides key insights into consumer spending trends, which are a significant component of economic activity.

Historically, this release has generated significant price movements across various currency pairs. For instance, after past Core Retail Sales releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. USDJPY has shown a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 29+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has also reacted strongly, with a median 1-hour move of 35 pips and top-quarter releases moving 60+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have typically seen median 1-hour moves of 9 pips, while USDCAD and USDCHF have recorded median moves of 12 pips and 10 pips respectively.

Recent prints have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The September 2026 release recorded an actual 1.4% against a forecast of 0.5%, after which EURUSD moved +4.8 pips in one hour. In August 2026, the actual was -0.3% versus a forecast of 0.1%, leading to a -0.8 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. The July 2026 print was -0.2% against a 0.6% forecast, with EURUSD moving -6.3 pips. Direction-reliability statistics for this event are not yet available.