CPI m/m (USD) preview: Consensus looks for 0.6% after 0.4% previous
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Consumer Price Index month over month (CPI m/m) release is scheduled for 2026-10-14 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.6% increase, following the previous reading of 0.4%. This high-impact data point is closely watched for its implications on inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Our data shows that after past CPI m/m releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 20 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 38+ pips, measured over 128 releases since 2015. GBPUSD has typically moved a median of 22 pips, with top-quarter events seeing 42+ pips over 128 releases. For XAUUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 51 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 108+ pips across 125 releases. The direction reliability for EURUSD after these events stands at 49%.
Recent actual prints have varied. The September 2026 release showed an actual of 0.4% against a forecast of 0%, resulting in a +9.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The August 2026 print was 0.1% against a 0.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving +7.2 pips. In July 2026, an actual of –0.4% against a 0.5% forecast led to a +37 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.