CPI y/y (CNY) comes in at 0.9% against 1.2% consensus

China’s Consumer Price Index, CPI y/y, was reported at 0.9% for October 14, 2026. This figure came in below the consensus expectation of 1.2%. The previous reading for the series was 0.8%. The actual print represented a -25.0% surprise relative to the market consensus.

Following the release, USDCNH initially moved +11 pips within the first five minutes. Fifteen minutes after the data, USDCNH was trading -3.8 pips from its pre-release level. For context, the median one hour move for USDCNH after past CPI y/y releases has been 15 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 24 pips or more. The measured moves so far are relatively small compared to the typical one hour median move. These historical observations are based on three releases since 2015.