CPI y/y (USD) preview: Consensus projects slight deceleration
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index year over year for the United States on August 12, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.4%. This would mark a slight deceleration from the previous month’s figure of 3.5%. As a high-impact release, the CPI y/y is a critical indicator for assessing inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across major currency pairs and gold. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past CPI y/y releases was 21 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 40+ pips over 120 measured events since 2015. GBPUSD experienced a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 43 pips across 120 releases. USDJPY saw a median move of 22 pips, with top-quarter events moving 41+ pips over 116 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, typically shows larger reactions, with a median 1-hour move of 52 pips and top-quarter moves of 108+ pips over 117 releases.
Recent CPI y/y prints have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The July 14, 2026 release came in at 3.5% against a forecast of 3.8%, resulting in a +37 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD. In June 2026, the actual was 4.2% compared to a 4% forecast, leading to a +11 pips EURUSD move. The May 2026 release saw 3.8% versus a 3.7% forecast, with EURUSD moving -0.9 pips.