Retail Sales m/m (USD) preview: Consensus points to slower growth
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
Ahead of the Retail Sales m/m (USD) release on October 15, 2026, at 12:30 UTC, market consensus anticipates a 0.3% increase. This follows the previous month’s robust reading of 1.2%. As a high impact event, this data point offers insight into consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity.
Historically, this release has generated notable market movements. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips across 122 releases since 2015. GBPUSD typically moves 15 pips (median) or 26+ pips (top-quarter) over 123 releases. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter events seeing 29+ pips over 120 releases. For XAUUSD, the median 1-hour move is 35 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 60+ pips over 121 releases. Other pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have median 1-hour moves of 9 pips, while USDCAD sees 12 pips and USDCHF 10 pips.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. The September 2026 release recorded an actual 1.2% against a forecast of 0.3%, with EURUSD moving +4.8 pips in the hour following. In August 2026, the actual was -0.6% compared to a 0% forecast, leading to a -0.8 pips move for EURUSD. July 2026 saw an actual of 0.2% against a -0.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving -6.3 pips.