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United States

Retail Sales m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Nov 17 13:30 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.8%  

What this release is

The Retail Sales m/m (USD) report tracks the total value of sales from retail establishments in the United States, reflecting the monthly change in consumer spending. This data provides insight into the health of the consumer sector, a significant component of the economy. The official source for this monthly release is census.gov.

Forex traders watch this release because consumer spending is a major driver of economic growth. Stronger retail sales can suggest a robust economy, which might influence the central bank’s monetary policy decisions, potentially affecting the valuation of the US Dollar. Conversely, weaker sales could indicate slowing economic activity.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change. Traders also monitor any revisions to previous months’ data, as these can provide additional context about underlying trends. The release’s monthly cadence allows for regular assessment of consumer activity.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
13pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
27pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD8.0p8.7p13p27p
AUDUSD5.9p5.5p8.8p16p
GBPUSD9.0p9.8p15p26p
NZDUSD6.1p6.2p8.7p16p
USDCAD5.9p7.8p12p21p
USDCHF6.7p7.9p10p19p
USDJPY12p13p15p29p
XAUUSD23p28p35p59p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 33 of 60 cases · median -5.3p n=60 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 26 of 47 cases · median +2.1p n=47 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=6 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 15, 20260.8%1.2%1.2%1.3%+5.8p—
Sep 16, 20261.2%0.3%-0.6%-0.5%+4.8pStory
Aug 14, 2026-0.6%0%0.2%—-0.8p—
Jul 16, 20260.2%-0.2%0.9%1%-6.3p—
Jun 17, 20260.9%-0.1%0.5%0.4%+2.2p—
May 14, 20260.5%1.2%1.7%1.6%-9.2p—
Apr 21, 20261.7%0.6%0.6%0.7%+6.8p—
Apr 1, 20260.6%0.3%-0.2%-0.1%+13p—
Mar 6, 2026-0.2%-0.3%0%—-6.4p—
Feb 10, 20260%0.1%0.6%—+29p—
Jan 14, 20260.6%1.1%0%-0.1%+7.4p—
Dec 16, 20250%-0.1%0.2%0.1%+14p—
Nov 25, 20250.2%-0.2%0.6%0.6%+21p—
Sep 16, 20250.6%-0.3%0.5%0.6%+21p—
Aug 15, 20250.5%0.8%0.6%0.9%+6.6p—
Jul 17, 20250.6%0.1%-0.9%—+12p—
Jun 17, 2025-0.9%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%-6.2p—
May 15, 20250.1%0.6%1.4%1.7%+11p—
Apr 16, 20251.4%0.3%0.2%—+13p—
Mar 17, 20250.2%-0.2%-0.9%-1.2%+1.8p—
Feb 14, 2025-0.9%0.5%0.4%0.7%+16p—
Jan 16, 20250.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%+8.6p—
Dec 17, 20240.7%-0.2%0.4%0.5%+12p—
Nov 15, 20240.4%0%0.4%0.8%-39p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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