10-Year Note Auction - ForexCracked
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United States

10-Year Note Auction USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 9 17:00 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The 10-Year Note Auction measures the demand for U.S. government debt securities that mature in ten years. These auctions are a key mechanism for the U.S. government to finance its operations. The U.S. Treasury, via home.treasury.gov, publishes the results of these market sector events.

Forex traders monitor these auctions because they provide insight into investor sentiment towards U.S. government debt and the broader U.S. economy. Strong demand for U.S. Treasury notes can signal confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and a safe-haven asset, potentially supporting the USD. Conversely, weak demand may suggest a reduced appetite for U.S. debt, which can weigh on the currency. Auction results influence bond yields, affecting interest rate differentials.

The market typically focuses on the auction’s yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, and the percentage of indirect bids. These figures indicate the level of investor demand and the cost of government borrowing. The typical impact rating for this series is High. After past releases, market participants have observed immediate reactions in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. There are no revisions to these primary auction results.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
45pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.9p2.9p4.9p9.5p
AUDUSD1.6p2.8p3.8p7.4p
GBPUSD2.8p4.2p7.0p11p
NZDUSD1.8p2.8p3.9p7.2p
USDCAD2.1p2.7p5.0p9.9p
USDCHF1.8p3.4p5.2p8.7p
USDJPY3.0p4.4p5.7p13p
XAUUSD6.2p12p18p40p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 12, 20264.58%-6.7p
Jul 8, 20264.58%4.538%+5.2p
Jun 10, 20264.538%4.468%-1.3p
May 12, 20264.468%4.282%+4.7p
Apr 8, 20264.282%4.217%-7.1p
Mar 11, 20264.217%4.177%+0.3p
Feb 11, 20264.177%4.173%-3.6p
Jan 12, 20264.173%4.175%+0.4p
Dec 9, 20254.175%4.074%+0.3p
Nov 12, 20254.074%4.117%-3.6p
Oct 8, 20254.117%4.033%+1.8p
Sep 10, 20254.033%4.255%+0.5p
Aug 6, 20254.255%4.362%+15p
Jul 9, 20254.362%4.421%+4.1p
Jun 11, 20254.421%4.342%+7.7p
May 6, 20254.342%4.435%+16p
Apr 9, 20254.435%4.31%-44p
Mar 12, 20254.31%4.632%+1.1p
Feb 12, 20254.632%4.68%-37p
Jan 7, 20254.68%4.235%-12p
Dec 11, 20244.235%4.347%-3.1p
Nov 5, 20244.347%4.066%+0.1p
Oct 9, 20244.066%3.648%-2.3p
Sep 11, 20243.648%3.96%+2.7p

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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