2-Year Note Auction - ForexCracked
United States

2-Year Note Auction USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 26 17:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 4.787%  

What this release is

The 2-Year Note Auction reports the results of the U.S. government’s sale of its two-year maturity debt securities. This release details the demand, pricing, and allocation of these short-term Treasury notes. The official source for this market data is home.treasury.gov, indicating it is published by the U.S. Treasury.

Forex traders monitor these auctions as a gauge of investor appetite for U.S. government debt. The results can signal shifts in perceptions of U.S. economic health and future interest rate expectations. Strong demand for U.S. Treasury notes often suggests confidence in the U.S. economy, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar, while weak demand may have the opposite effect.

Market participants typically focus on key metrics such as the bid-to-cover ratio, which reflects overall demand, and the average yield, which indicates the interest rate investors are willing to accept. Significant deviations from market expectations in these figures can prompt price movements. After past releases, the U.S. dollar has often experienced a medium impact, with reactions typically occurring shortly after the auction results become public.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
9pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
34pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.8p2.7p5.0p8.6p
AUDUSD1.2p1.7p3.5p6.5p
GBPUSD2.3p4.2p6.2p11p
NZDUSD1.4p2.1p3.1p6.1p
USDCAD1.7p2.8p5.2p11p
USDCHF1.3p1.7p3.7p6.5p
USDJPY1.7p2.4p4.1p9.4p
XAUUSD5.1p7.1p14p28p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 22, 20264.787%———+3.0p—
Aug 25, 2026——4.315%—+3.1p—
Jul 27, 20264.315%—4.189%—+6.1p—
Jun 23, 20264.189%—4.071%—-0.1p—
May 26, 20264.071%—3.812%—+0.1p—
Apr 27, 20263.812%—3.936%—-4.5p—
Mar 24, 20263.936%—3.455%—-6.9p—
Feb 24, 20263.455%—3.58%—-6.9p—
Jan 26, 20263.58%—3.499%—0.0p—
Dec 22, 20253.499%—3.489%—-5.1p—
Nov 24, 20253.489%—3.504%—+9.7p—
Oct 27, 20253.504%—3.571%—-0.9p—
Sep 23, 20253.571%—3.641%—+6.6p—
Aug 26, 20253.641%—3.92%—-11p—
Jul 28, 20253.92%—3.786%—-14p—
Jun 24, 20253.786%—3.955%—+2.1p—
May 27, 20253.955%—3.795%—+1.2p—
Apr 22, 20253.795%—3.984%—+16p—
Mar 25, 20253.984%—4.169%—+3.2p—
Feb 24, 20254.169%—4.211%—+8.0p—
Jan 27, 20254.211%—4.335%—-18p—
Dec 23, 20244.335%—4.274%—+11p—
Nov 25, 20244.274%—4.13%—+21p—
Oct 28, 20244.13%—3.52%—+2.2p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
← Back to the economic calendar