7-Year Note Auction - ForexCracked
United States

7-Year Note Auction USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 17:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 5.085%  

What this release is

The 7-Year Note Auction measures the market demand for United States government debt securities with a seven-year maturity. These auctions are conducted by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which publishes the results on its official website, home.treasury.gov.

Forex traders monitor these auctions as they provide insight into investor appetite for U.S. dollar denominated assets. Strong demand for U.S. Treasury notes can suggest confidence in the U.S. economy and its debt, potentially influencing U.S. bond yields. Changes in bond yields can affect interest rate differentials, which are a key factor in the valuation of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

The market typically assesses the auction results by focusing on metrics such as the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates overall demand, and the awarded yield. A higher bid-to-cover ratio often suggests robust demand. After past releases, strong demand for these notes has sometimes been associated with a supportive environment for the U.S. dollar, while weaker demand has sometimes led to downward pressure on the currency. The impact is generally observed shortly after the auction results are published.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
32pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.5p3.8p6.7p10p
AUDUSD1.6p2.5p3.7p7.4p
GBPUSD2.4p4.2p6.4p12p
NZDUSD1.5p2.2p3.9p8.1p
USDCAD2.3p3.9p5.3p9.8p
USDCHF1.9p2.7p5.1p8.1p
USDJPY2.4p3.7p5.6p10p
XAUUSD6.7p9.0p14p31p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 24, 20265.085%———-11p—
Aug 27, 2026——4.473%—-2.9p—
Jul 28, 20264.473%—4.26%—-6.8p—
Jun 25, 20264.26%—4.29%—0.0p—
May 28, 20264.29%—4.175%—-3.4p—
Apr 28, 20264.175%—4.255%—+3.3p—
Mar 26, 20264.255%—3.79%—-9.7p—
Feb 26, 20263.79%—4.018%—+8.2p—
Jan 29, 20264.018%—3.93%—+2.2p—
Dec 24, 20253.93%—3.781%—+6.7p—
Nov 26, 20253.781%—3.79%—-11p—
Oct 28, 20253.79%—3.953%—-4.9p—
Sep 25, 20253.953%—3.925%—-13p—
Aug 28, 20253.925%—4.092%—-1.5p—
Jul 29, 20254.092%—4.022%—+0.3p—
Jun 26, 20254.022%—4.194%—-4.4p—
May 29, 20254.194%—4.123%—+5.8p—
Apr 24, 20254.123%—4.233%—-11p—
Mar 27, 20254.233%—4.194%—-9.4p—
Feb 26, 20254.194%—4.457%—-4.2p—
Jan 28, 20254.457%—4.532%—-1.5p—
Dec 26, 20244.532%—4.183%—+9.0p—
Nov 27, 20244.183%—4.215%—+24p—
Oct 29, 20244.215%—3.668%—+6.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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