30-Year Bond Auction - ForexCracked
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United States

30-Year Bond Auction USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 17:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 5.216%  

What this release is

This release details the results of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s auction of 30-year Treasury bonds. It indicates the demand for long-term U.S. government debt and the interest rates at which the government can borrow over a three-decade period. The official source for this market sector data is home.treasury.gov.

Forex traders monitor this auction closely because it provides insights into investor appetite for U.S. dollar denominated assets. Strong demand for these bonds, often reflected in lower yields, can suggest confidence in the U.S. economy or a preference for safe-haven assets, which has historically supported the U.S. dollar. Conversely, weak demand, indicated by higher yields, can signal investor caution or a shift towards other currencies.

The market typically digests this release by focusing on key metrics such as the bid-to-cover ratio, which measures demand relative to the amount offered, and the auction’s yield compared to pre-auction trading levels. Indirect bidder participation, representing foreign and institutional demand, is also closely watched. After past releases, these figures have often led to immediate market reactions, reflecting shifts in sentiment towards U.S. government debt and the broader U.S. economic outlook.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
44pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.6p3.4p5.9p11p
AUDUSD2.2p3.0p4.2p8.6p
GBPUSD3.3p5.1p7.5p15p
NZDUSD1.8p2.8p4.3p9.0p
USDCAD2.6p3.8p6.0p13p
USDCHF2.7p2.9p4.7p9.3p
USDJPY3.6p4.7p6.7p12p
XAUUSD9.6p15p18p35p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 13, 20265.216%5.058%-1.6p
Jul 9, 20265.058%5.02%+0.9p
Jun 11, 20265.02%5.046%+42p
May 13, 20265.046%4.876%-4.3p
Apr 9, 20264.876%4.871%+3.5p
Mar 12, 20264.871%4.75%-0.1p
Feb 12, 20264.75%4.825%-1.8p
Jan 13, 20264.825%4.773%+7.2p
Dec 11, 20254.773%4.694%-1.7p
Nov 13, 20254.694%4.734%-13p
Oct 9, 20254.734%4.651%+2.0p
Sep 11, 20254.651%4.813%-4.7p
Aug 7, 20254.813%4.889%-5.1p
Jul 10, 20254.889%4.844%+3.7p
Jun 12, 20254.844%4.819%-0.9p
May 8, 20254.819%4.813%+0.6p
Apr 10, 20254.813%4.623%+13p
Mar 13, 20254.623%4.748%-18p
Feb 13, 20254.748%4.913%-17p
Jan 8, 20254.913%4.535%+7.1p
Dec 12, 20244.535%4.608%-18p
Nov 6, 20244.608%4.389%+26p
Oct 10, 20244.389%4.015%+13p
Sep 12, 20244.015%4.314%+10p

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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