3-Year Note Auction - ForexCracked
United States

3-Year Note Auction USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Nov 9 18:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 4.932%  

What this release is

The 3-Year Note Auction measures the yield and demand for U.S. Treasury notes with a three-year maturity. These debt instruments are issued by the U.S. government to finance its operations. The official source for this data is home.treasury.gov, published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This release falls under the market sector.

Forex traders monitor this auction because the determined yields on U.S. government debt are a significant factor in global interest rate differentials. Changes in these yields can influence the relative attractiveness of holding U.S. dollar denominated assets. This can affect capital flows and, consequently, the valuation of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

After past releases, market participants have typically focused on key metrics such as the high yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, and the percentage of indirect bids, which collectively indicate investor demand. The market digests these results shortly after their announcement. This release is generally considered to have a medium impact on market movements.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
9pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
58pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.0p2.6p4.7p9.0p
AUDUSD1.4p2.4p3.7p7.0p
GBPUSD2.3p3.8p6.2p12p
NZDUSD1.3p2.0p2.8p6.8p
USDCAD1.8p2.4p6.0p12p
USDCHF1.2p2.2p3.6p8.0p
USDJPY2.3p3.3p5.5p9.5p
XAUUSD4.9p9.4p13p27p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 6, 20264.932%—4.474%—+6.8p—
Sep 8, 20264.474%———+2.4p—
Aug 11, 2026——4.179%—-1.4p—
Jul 7, 20264.179%—4.192%—+4.4p—
Jun 9, 20264.192%—3.965%—+7.3p—
May 11, 20263.965%—3.897%—+4.9p—
Apr 7, 20263.897%—3.579%—+6.1p—
Mar 10, 20263.579%—3.518%—-6.6p—
Feb 10, 20263.518%—3.609%—-3.6p—
Jan 12, 20263.609%—3.614%—-8.8p—
Dec 8, 20253.614%—3.579%—-1.8p—
Nov 10, 20253.579%—3.576%—-2.2p—
Oct 7, 20253.576%—3.485%—-2.7p—
Sep 9, 20253.485%—3.669%—-9.6p—
Aug 5, 20253.669%—3.891%—-4.5p—
Jul 8, 20253.891%—3.972%—+16p—
Jun 10, 20253.972%—3.824%—-0.5p—
May 5, 20253.824%—3.784%—-2.3p—
Apr 8, 20253.784%—3.908%—+4.1p—
Mar 11, 20253.908%—4.3%—+9.2p—
Feb 11, 20254.3%—4.332%—0.0p—
Jan 6, 20254.332%—4.117%—-5.5p—
Dec 10, 20244.117%—4.152%—+16p—
Nov 4, 20244.152%—3.878%—-3.5p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
← Back to the economic calendar