United States

5-Year Note Auction USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Nov 24 18:00 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The 5-Year Note Auction measures the demand for and pricing of US government debt securities maturing in five years. These auctions are conducted by the US Department of the Treasury, with official information available from home.treasury.gov. This release provides insight into the market’s appetite for US sovereign debt.

Forex traders monitor these auctions because the results reflect investor sentiment towards the US economy and the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets. Strong demand for US Treasury notes can signal confidence in the dollar, while weak demand may suggest the opposite. Auction outcomes can influence broader interest rate expectations and the perceived value of the US dollar.

This market sector release typically has a medium impact on currency markets. Traders focus on key auction metrics such as the awarded yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, and participation from various bidder types. The results are generally final upon release, with market reactions occurring immediately after the auction’s conclusion.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
9pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
31pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.7p2.9p5.0p9.3p
AUDUSD1.4p2.2p3.8p7.3p
GBPUSD2.2p3.9p6.0p12p
NZDUSD1.4p2.0p3.9p6.6p
USDCAD2.0p3.1p6.9p12p
USDCHF1.4p2.2p4.1p7.6p
USDJPY2.2p3.1p6.0p9.5p
XAUUSD7.0p7.8p20p35p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 27, 2026——5.033%—-6.5p—
Sep 23, 20265.033%———+14p—
Aug 26, 2026——4.408%—+2.5p—
Jul 27, 20264.408%—4.2%—-8.2p—
Jun 24, 20264.2%—4.182%—-9.8p—
May 27, 20264.182%—3.955%—-4.9p—
Apr 27, 20263.955%—3.98%—-3.0p—
Mar 25, 20263.98%—3.615%—+11p—
Feb 25, 20263.615%—3.823%—-2.7p—
Jan 27, 20263.823%—3.747%—-2.0p—
Dec 23, 20253.747%—3.562%—+12p—
Nov 25, 20253.562%—3.625%—-2.8p—
Oct 27, 20253.625%—3.71%—-0.6p—
Sep 24, 20253.71%—3.724%—+5.0p—
Aug 27, 20253.724%—3.983%—-0.4p—
Jul 28, 20253.983%—3.879%—-7.0p—
Jun 25, 20253.879%—4.071%—+12p—
May 28, 20254.071%—3.995%—-2.9p—
Apr 23, 20253.995%—4.1%—-10p—
Mar 26, 20254.1%—4.123%—-31p—
Feb 25, 20254.123%—4.33%—+6.3p—
Jan 27, 20254.33%—4.478%—-3.9p—
Dec 24, 20244.478%—4.197%—+0.2p—
Nov 26, 20244.197%—4.138%—-5.4p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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