CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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United States

CPI y/y USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 12:30 UTC · consensus 3.4% · previous 3.4%  

What this release is

The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The year-over-year change, CPI y/y, indicates the rate of inflation. This key economic indicator for the United States is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, bls.gov.

Forex traders closely monitor CPI y/y data because it is a primary input for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Persistent inflation pressure can prompt the central bank to adjust interest rates, which directly impacts the attractiveness of the US Dollar to international investors. Higher interest rates typically support a stronger currency.

After past releases, the market’s initial reaction has often focused on the headline year-over-year percentage change. Revisions to previous months’ data can also influence trading sentiment. Given its high typical impact rating, CPI y/y releases frequently lead to significant volatility in USD currency pairs around the time of publication.

How hard it hits, measured

121 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
40pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD15p18p21p40p
AUDUSD14p14p15p34p
GBPUSD14p17p22p42p
NZDUSD13p13p15p31p
USDCAD12p14p15p28p
USDCHF11p13p16p30p
USDJPY16p19p22p40p
XAUUSD44p51p52p108p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 30 of 58 cases · median +2.3p n=58 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 22 of 38 cases · median +7.9p n=38 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 10 of 14 cases · median +14p n=14 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 12, 20263.4%2.7%3.5%—+7.2p—
Jul 14, 20263.5%3.8%4.2%—+37p—
Jun 10, 20264.2%4%3.8%—+11p—
May 12, 20263.8%3.7%3.3%—-0.9p—
Apr 10, 20263.3%2.3%2.4%—+20p—
Mar 11, 20262.4%2.2%2.4%—-13p—
Feb 13, 20262.4%2.5%2.7%—+8.8p—
Jan 13, 20262.7%2.7%2.7%—+17p—
Dec 18, 20252.7%2.8%3%—+10p—
Oct 24, 20253%—2.9%—+21p—
Sep 11, 20252.9%2.9%2.7%2.7%+44p—
Aug 12, 20252.7%2.9%2.7%—+21p—
Jul 15, 20252.7%2.4%2.4%—+1.7p—
Jun 11, 20252.4%2.1%2.3%—+26p—
May 13, 20252.3%2.2%2.4%—+29p—
Apr 10, 20252.4%2.6%2.8%—+18p—
Mar 12, 20252.8%2.9%3%—-0.8p—
Feb 12, 20253%3%2.9%—-19p—
Jan 15, 20252.9%2.5%2.7%—+38p—
Dec 11, 20242.7%2.3%2.6%—-6.3p—
Nov 13, 20242.6%2.1%2.4%—-5.0p—
Oct 10, 20242.4%2.7%2.5%—+13p—
Sep 11, 20242.5%2.9%2.9%—-26p—
Aug 14, 20242.9%3.1%3%—-0.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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