CPI y/y (USD) preview: Consensus points to accelerating inflation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Consumer Price Index year-over-year (CPI y/y) is scheduled for release on October 14, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.6%, an increase from the previous 3.4%. This high-impact release will be closely watched for signs of inflationary pressures within the US economy.
Historically, this release has driven significant market activity. After past CPI y/y releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 39+ pips. GBPUSD also recorded a median move of 21 pips, with top-quarter events moving 42+ pips. USDJPY typically saw a median move of 22 pips, and 41+ pips for top-quarter releases. Gold, XAUUSD, showed a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 108 pips. Other pairs such as AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF have historically shown median 1-hour moves of 15 pips.
Recent CPI y/y prints have shown varied outcomes. The September 2026 release came in at 3.4% against a 2.7% forecast, leading to a +9.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The August 2026 actual was also 3.4% with a 2.7% forecast, resulting in a +7.2 pips EURUSD move. In July 2026, the actual was 3.5% versus a 3.8% forecast, with EURUSD moving +37 pips.