CPI y/y (USD) preview: Consensus matches previous reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Consumer Price Index year over year (CPI y/y) is scheduled for release on September 11, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.4%, matching the previous month’s figure of 3.4%. This high-impact economic indicator is closely watched for its implications on inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement across major currency pairs and gold. After past CPI y/y releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. GBPUSD typically moves 22 pips on average, with top-quarter events exceeding 42 pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both show a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, while USDCAD also records a median 15 pips. USDCHF has a median move of 16 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically shown a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.
Recent CPI y/y prints have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The most recent reading in August 2026 came in at 3.4% against a forecast of 2.7%, resulting in a +7.2 pip EURUSD 1-hour move. In July 2026, the actual was 3.5% versus a forecast of 3.8%, leading to a +37 pip EURUSD move. June 2026 saw an actual of 4.2% against a 4% forecast, with an +11 pip EURUSD move. May 2026 had an actual of 3.8% versus 3.7%, resulting in a -0.9 pip EURUSD move. April 2026 recorded 3.3% against 2.3%, with a +20 pip EURUSD move. March 2026 was 2.4% versus 2.2%, leading to a -13 pip EURUSD move.