Employment Cost Index comes in at 0.9% against 0.8% consensus

The US Employment Cost Index for the second quarter of 2026 registered a 0.9% increase quarter over quarter. This figure came in above the market consensus expectation of 0.8%. The actual print represents a 12.5% surprise compared to the consensus. The previous quarter’s reading was also 0.9%.

Following the release, market reactions have been observed across major pairs. Fifteen minutes after the data, AUDUSD was down 4.0 pips, NZDUSD was down 3.6 pips, and USDCAD was down 0.4 pips. Conversely, EURUSD was up 1.2 pips, GBPUSD was up 2.3 pips, and USDCHF was up 1.5 pips. USDJPY saw a gain of 7.6 pips, while XAUUSD was down 31 pips. For most pairs, these initial moves are smaller than their respective median 1-hour moves observed after past releases. For example, the median 1-hour move for EURUSD is 12 pips, and for USDJPY it is 12 pips. The median 1-hour move for XAUUSD is 28 pips.