Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Elevates September Rate Hike Expectations

• Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech boosts September rate hike odds to 60.4%.
• U.S. dollar strengthens; gold and Asian stocks decline.
• Some investors express skepticism about mounting rate hike speculation.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpectedly hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 28, 2026, emphasizing his commitment to bringing down inflation. This address significantly boosted market expectations for a September interest rate hike, with fed funds futures traders now pricing in a 60.4% chance of a quarter-point increase, up from approximately 56-57% prior to the speech. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Warsh’s remarks, while gold prices fell and Asian stocks saw declines on Monday. Despite the surge in rate hike probabilities, some investors have expressed skepticism regarding the sustainability of these heightened expectations.