FIPE CPI m/m comes in at 0.01% against 0.3% consensus

FIPE CPI month over month for Brazil registered 0.01%. This figure came in significantly below the consensus expectation of 0.3%. The release represents a -96.7% surprise compared to the consensus. The previous month’s reading was -0.03%.

Following the release, the USDBRL pair showed no immediate change. The pair moved 0.0 pips five minutes after the data was published, and remained at 0.0 pips fifteen minutes after the release. This measured market reaction is consistent with the typical behavior observed for USDBRL after similar releases. Historically, the median one hour move for USDBRL after FIPE CPI releases has been 0 pips, with top quarter releases moving 0+ pips. These historical observations are based on three releases since 2015.