FOMC Minutes Indicate Most Officials Expect Another Rate Hike by Year-End Amid Inflation Concerns
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
| GBPUSD | — | — |
- Fed Sept minutes: Most expect hike by year-end.
- 19 officials backed hike to 3.75%-4.00%.
- Energy prices, supply shocks cited for more tightening.
- ECB tightening limits USD gains.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicate that most officials anticipate another interest rate hike before the year-end. This expectation is primarily driven by inflation remaining above target for an extended period and a stable, recently strengthened labor market, with inflation risks skewed to the upside. While a majority assessed that a further increase in the federal funds rate target range would likely be appropriate, the minutes provided no specific timeline for such a move, emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions. This aligns with recent market adjustments, which had scaled back expectations for an October hike but largely priced in a December increase [STORY_ID: 69583a63-42ec-436f-ac7d-b87f09093089].
The September FOMC minutes, released on October 7, 2026, confirmed that all 19 Federal Reserve officials unanimously supported the recent rate hike, establishing the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The minutes reinforced a hawkish outlook, indicating that a further rate hike remains a strong possibility at either the October 27-28 meeting or in December. Officials explicitly linked prolonged high energy prices and potential supply shocks to a strengthened case for additional monetary tightening. While the hawkish tone supports front-end Treasury yields, the dollar’s gains are partially offset by tightening measures from other central banks, such as the European Central Bank, which has narrowed rate differentials.