GDP q/q (BRL) comes in at 0.5% against 0.8% consensus

Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter came in at 0.5% quarter over quarter. This figure was below the consensus expectation of 0.8%. The previous quarter’s GDP growth was 1.1%. The actual print represented a -37.5% surprise compared to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, the USDBRL pair moved +116 pips after five minutes and +173 pips after fifteen minutes. Historically, the median one-hour move for USDBRL after similar releases has been 214 pips. Top-quarter releases have seen moves of 214 pips or more. The measured move so far is below the historical median one-hour movement. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.