GDP Sales q/q (USD) preview: Market consensus at 1%, down from previous 1.9%

Traders are looking ahead to the upcoming GDP Sales q/q (USD) release on July 30, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This high impact event carries a market consensus of 1%, a notable decrease from the previous reading of 1.9%. The quarterly sales data provides insight into the health of the US economy, and deviations from expectations can prompt significant market reactions.

Historically, this release has generated substantial movement across major pairs. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases was 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 19+ pips over 93 observations since 2015. GBPUSD has shown even larger reactions, with a median 1-hour move of 15 pips and top-quarter moves exceeding 30+ pips across 93 releases. USDJPY has also seen median 1-hour moves of 12 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 30+ pips over 90 observations. Other pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have seen median 1-hour moves of 8 pips and 9 pips respectively. USDCAD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, while USDCHF has a median move of 10 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically reacted with a median 1-hour move of 39 pips, and top-quarter releases moving 87+ pips over 92 observations.

Recent prints for this series have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The most recent reading on June 25, 2026, came in at 1.9% against a forecast of 1.5%, after which EURUSD moved +25 pips in one hour. Prior to that, the May 28, 2026, release showed 1.5% versus a 1.6% forecast, with EURUSD moving +8.5 pips. The April 30, 2026, release saw an actual of 1.6% against a much higher forecast of 4.1%, followed by a -8.8 pips move for EURUSD.