GDP y/y (BRL) comes in at 2% against 2.7% consensus

Brazil’s annual Gross Domestic Product, GDP y/y, came in at 2%. This figure was below the consensus expectation of 2.7% and represents a -25.9% surprise against that forecast. The previous reading for GDP y/y was 1.8%.

Following the release, USDBRL moved +116 pips five minutes after the data was published. Fifteen minutes post-release, USDBRL was up +173 pips. Historically, USDBRL has seen a median one-hour move of 214 pips after similar releases, with top-quarter moves exceeding 214 pips. The measured move so far is below the median one-hour move. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available due to limited historical data.