Global October Manufacturing PMIs: Asia and Europe Mostly Expand, US ISM Rises to 55.5 as S&P Global Eases to 54.9
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- US S&P Global PMI fell to 54.9, but employment hit strongest since April 2021
- US ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.5, beating 54.6 consensus; 10th straight expansion month
- Eurozone PMI eased to 52.7; UK PMI hit five-month high of 52.8
- Philippines contracted at 49.1; Brazil improved to 46.1 but still contracting
Final October S&P Global manufacturing surveys pointed to broad expansion, though momentum diverged by region. The US PMI fell to 54.9 from 55.9 and the 56.0 preliminary estimate. Even so, employment growth was the strongest since April 2021, selling prices rose at the fastest pace since September 2022, and supplier delivery times lengthened the most since August 2022. New orders growth slowed to its weakest since March.
In Europe, the eurozone PMI eased to 52.7 from 52.9, though it was above the 52.4 flash estimate, while the UK PMI rose to a five-month high of 52.8 from 51.9, matching the flash. Sweden’s index jumped to 60.5 from 58.5, and the Netherlands slipped to 55.0 from 55.6. Greece fell to 53.3 and Poland rose to 50.0 from 49.0, ending a long run of contraction. Turkey’s index dropped to 47.3 and Russia’s was 49.9, both below the 50 line.
Asia was mixed. Japan’s PMI slipped to 53.3 from 54.1, a seven-month low, with input cost pressures building; one source said this could support the case for continued Bank of Japan policy normalisation and modestly support the yen. South Korea (51.3), Taiwan (54.9), China (52.0) and India (54.7) all slowed slightly, while Vietnam (52.3), Indonesia (54.0) and Malaysia (51.0, up from 49.9) improved. Semiconductor-related demand was a recurring driver across the region.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, above the 54.6 consensus (one source cites an unchanged 54.5 as the expectation). This is the second-highest reading in more than four years, and the sector has now expanded for a 10th consecutive month. The Production index jumped to 59.0 from 56.7, its highest since November 2021, and inventories returned to growth, while new orders improved only modestly. The Employment index slipped to 52.4 from 52.7 (vs. 52.0 expected). The Prices Paid index fell to 75.2 from 77.9 (vs. 77.5 expected). This is a different US reading from the 54.9 S&P Global figure in the headline.
Manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global for two emerging markets showed continued contraction in October. In the Philippines, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from 49.6 in September, below the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Output declined at a softer pace, while new orders fell faster, and both domestic and foreign demand stayed weak. In Brazil, the manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 from 44.8, still well within contraction territory. Production fell for the sixth straight month, which the survey attributed to weaker sales, a lack of investment and disruption ahead of the runoff election.