Household Spending y/y (JPY) comes in at -3.6% against -1.8% consensus

Japan’s Household Spending year over year for the period just reported came in at -3.6%. This figure represents a notable miss compared to the consensus expectation of -1.8%. The actual print was also a further decline from the previous period’s -3.3%. The surprise versus consensus was -100.0%, indicating a significant underperformance relative to analyst forecasts.

Following the release, JPY pairs showed movement. Fifteen minutes after the data, AUDJPY was down 9.3 pips, CADJPY was down 7.8 pips, and CHFJPY was down 11 pips. EURJPY also moved down 11 pips, while GBPJPY declined 15 pips. NZDJPY was down 7.2 pips, and USDJPY was down 11 pips. For context, the median 1-hour move for AUDJPY after past releases is 6 pips, and for GBPJPY it is 10 pips. The measured moves so far are generally larger than the median 1-hour moves observed after past releases for several of these pairs, with some approaching or exceeding the top-quarter release thresholds, such as GBPJPY’s 15 pip move against a top-quarter threshold of 17+ pips.