Housing Starts m/m comes in at 19% against -3.8% consensus

Housing Starts m/m for the United States came in at 19%, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of -3.8%. This marks a substantial increase from the previous month’s figure of -15.4%. The actual print represented a 600.0% surprise versus the consensus forecast.

Following the release, the US Dollar saw broad strength against major currencies. AUDUSD moved -3.3 pips and EURUSD moved -7.3 pips 15 minutes after the release. GBPUSD moved -1.0 pips, and NZDUSD moved -3.9 pips over the same period. USDCAD rose +4.4 pips, USDCHF gained +5.5 pips, and USDJPY advanced +6.2 pips 15 minutes post-release. Gold, XAUUSD, declined -183 pips 15 minutes after the data. For context, the median 1-hour moves for these pairs after similar releases typically range from 6 pips to 11 pips, with XAUUSD’s median 1-hour move at 21 pips. The observed moves for most USD pairs were relatively small compared to their historical median 1-hour moves, while XAUUSD’s move was notably larger than its median.