ISM Manufacturing PMI preview: Consensus points to slight improvement
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is scheduled for release on 2026-08-03 at 14:00 UTC. This high-impact economic indicator has a market consensus forecast of 54.0, slightly above the previous reading of 53.3. The index provides a timely snapshot of the health of the US manufacturing sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.
Historically, the ISM Manufacturing PMI release has generated notable market reactions. For AUDUSD and EURUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 20+ pips. GBPUSD has typically seen a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 28+ pips. USDCAD and USDCHF have both experienced median 1-hour moves of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. USDJPY’s median 1-hour move is 14 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 35 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 60+ pips. These statistics are measured over 114 to 120 releases since 2015, depending on the pair.
Recent releases of the ISM Manufacturing PMI have shown varying outcomes. The July 2026 print registered 53.3, while the June 2026 actual was 54, above a forecast of 50.3. May 2026 saw an actual of 52.7 against a forecast of 49.8. The March 2026 release, with an actual of 52.4 against a forecast of 53, resulted in a –37 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD.