ISM Manufacturing PMI preview: Consensus slightly below previous reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is scheduled for release on September 1, 2026, at 14:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 55.2, a slight decrease from the previous month’s 55.6. This indicator is closely watched as a gauge of the health of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 generally signifies expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This release carries a high impact rating, suggesting its potential to influence market sentiment.
Historically, the ISM Manufacturing PMI release has generated notable volatility across major currency pairs and gold. For AUDUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases was 11 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 20 pips across 121 releases since 2015. EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with top-quarter moves over 19 pips from 121 releases. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter moves above 28 pips over 121 releases. USDJPY’s median 1-hour move was 14 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 27 pips from 115 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically seen a median 1-hour move of 36 pips, with top-quarter moves over 60 pips across 119 releases.
Looking at recent history, the July 2026 release came in at 55.6 against a forecast of 53, with EURUSD moving -13 pips in the hour following. The June 2026 print was 53.3, while the May 2026 figure was 54 against a forecast of 50.3, leading to a +7.6 pips move for EURUSD. The March 2026 actual was 52.7 against a forecast of 52.2, followed by a +11 pips move for EURUSD.