ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid preview: consensus 69.5 against a previous 74

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid for USD is due at 15:00 UTC on 4 November 2026, and it carries a High impact rating. The market consensus is 69.5, compared with a previous reading of 74. A result in line with consensus would mean a lower print than last month, so the gap between the forecast and the prior number is the main thing traders will be comparing against the actual figure.

Historically, this release has produced measurable moves across the major pairs. Median 1-hour moves since 2015 were 11 pips for AUDUSD, 14 pips for EURUSD, 18 pips for GBPUSD, 11 pips for NZDUSD, 13 pips for USDCAD, 11 pips for USDCHF and 14 pips for USDJPY. XAUUSD had a median 1-hour move of 34 pips. In the top quarter of releases, moves reached 17+ pips for AUDUSD, 21+ for EURUSD, 28+ for GBPUSD, 17+ for NZDUSD, 26+ for USDCAD, 19+ for USDCHF, 32+ for USDJPY and 73+ for XAUUSD. These figures come from roughly 119 to 122 releases per instrument. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.

Recent prints have run between 67.7 and 74. The last release on 5 October came in at 74 against a forecast of 76.9, and EURUSD moved +17 pips over the following hour. In September the actual was 72.6 against a forecast of 68.2, and EURUSD moved -9.0 pips. Across the six recent releases listed, the 1-hour EURUSD move ranged from +3.9 to +17 pips.