London Open Briefing: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Gold set the tone going into London, with XAUUSD +2.68% since the reference point, well ahead of everything else on the board. NZDUSD +0.66%, AUDUSD +0.51% and GBPUSD +0.48% also moved higher, while JP225 -0.65% and USDCHF -0.54% lost ground. Over 24 hours sterling is the strongest currency at +0.41%, followed by the euro at +0.32%, and the yen is the weakest at -0.26%. The risk meter reads -0.04, essentially neutral on the scale from -1 to +1.
Positioning data shows some movement. The retail book on XAUUSD moved 11 points toward short in 24 hours, and retail books disagree by 20 points on the pair. Crowd positioning also moved toward short by 10 points on BTCUSD and by 9 points on GBPUSD.
The first scheduled event is at 10:00 UTC, when the euro area publishes its inflation data. The Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y has a consensus of 4.0% against a previous 3.8%. CPI y/y is expected at 3.4% versus 3.8% before. Core CPI y/y is forecast at 2.5%, unchanged from the previous reading.
The US session brings a dense run of data. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is due at 13:15 UTC with a consensus of 64K against 90K previously. At 15:00 UTC the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.2 (previous 54.9), alongside ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid at 69.5 (previous 74). The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change follows at 15:30 UTC, with a consensus of -2.481M against -1.892M.
The single most important item ahead is the Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate at 10:00 UTC, given the gap between its 4.0% consensus and the other headline CPI figure.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since the previous session | XAUUSD +2.68%, NZDUSD +0.66%, JP225 -0.65% |
| Currency strength, 24h | GBP strongest at +0.41%, JPY weakest at -0.26% |
| Risk meter | -0.04 (balanced) |
Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 UTC | EUR | CPI y/y | High | 3.4% |
| 10:00 UTC | EUR | Core CPI | Medium | – |
| 10:00 UTC | EUR | Core CPI y/y | Medium | 2.5% |
| 10:00 UTC | EUR | Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Medium | 4.0% |
| 13:15 UTC | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | High | 64K |
| 15:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 69.5 |
| 15:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | High | 55.2 |
| 15:30 UTC | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | High | -2.481M |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.