National Bank of Poland Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent High Inflation

• National Bank of Poland holds main rate at 3.75% for sixth month.
• August inflation confirmed at 14-month high of 3.4%.
• Policymaker suggests potential hikes if inflation exceeds 4% for longer.

The National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council decided to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 3.75% for the sixth consecutive month, aligning with market expectations. This decision comes as Poland’s August consumer price inflation was confirmed at a 14-month high of 3.4%, up from 3.0% in July, primarily driven by surging fuel costs. While the central bank’s post-meeting statement signaled continuity, policymaker Ludwik Kotecki indicated that rate increases could be considered this year or in early 2027 if inflation persistently exceeds 4%. Despite a more dovish tone from Governor Glapiński in July, the consensus suggests flat rates in the near term, with potential cuts not anticipated until 2H26.