New York Open Briefing: Friday, July 31, 2026
The New York session opens with JPY as the strongest currency over the past 24 hours, gaining +1.44%, while the USD is the weakest, down -0.47%. This dynamic saw USDJPY fall -0.29%, GBPJPY decline -0.49%, and EURJPY drop -0.48%. The JP225 also moved lower by -0.73%, and XAUUSD is down -0.44%. The risk meter stands at +0.18, indicating a slightly risk-on tone. Retail books show disagreement on NZDUSD by 26 points, with the crowd flipping from 63% long to 52% short in 24 hours. Disagreement is also noted on GBPJPY by 20 points and XAUUSD by 23 points.
Earlier releases included Brazil’s PPI, with the y/y figure at 2.51% against a 3.03% consensus, and m/m at -0.77% versus -0.92% consensus. India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves came in at 682.354B, above the 675.378B consensus, while the Fiscal Balance was -3.078T. Italy’s HICP y/y registered 2.9% against a 3.2% consensus, and m/m was -1% compared to -0.4% consensus.
Looking ahead, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer is due at 13:45 UTC, with a consensus of 56.5. At 14:00 UTC, a series of Michigan reports will be released, including Consumer Expectations at 54 consensus, 5-Year Inflation Expectations at 3.3% consensus, and Inflation Expectations at 4.2% consensus. The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected at 53.9.
Traders will be closely watching the MNI Chicago Business Barometer for further USD direction.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since the previous session | JP225 -0.73%, GBPJPY -0.49%, EURJPY -0.48% |
| Currency strength, 24h | JPY strongest at +1.44%, USD weakest at -0.47% |
| Risk meter | +0.18 (mildly risk-on) |
Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 UTC | USD | MNI Chicago Business Barometer | High | 56.5 |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Michigan Consumer Expectations | Medium | 54 |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations | Medium | 3.3% |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Michigan Inflation Expectations | Medium | 4.2% |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 53.9 |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | – |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 54.4 |
| 17:00 UTC | USD | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | Medium | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.